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A Simple Explanation Of The Federal Reserve Statement

Posted June 25th, 2009 permalink

 

Reviewing the June 24 2009 FOMC AnnouncementThe Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged today within its target range of 0.000-0.250 percent. 

The Fed also reiterated its plan to support the mortgage market to the tune of $1.5 trillion.

In its press release, the FOMC noted that the U.S. economy is not slowing with the same speed versus just two months ago and that financial markets, in general, are improving. 

These are two signs that the country may be emerging from recession, if it hasn’t already.

The news isn’t all good, however.  The Fed made a point to highlight the potential hazards the nations faces on its path to economic recovery:

 

  • The prices of energy and commodities have been rising
  • Job losses are still mounting nationally
  • Businesses are reducing capital expenditures

 

Also in its statement, the Fed acknowledged a plan to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent “for an extended period” and a re-commitment to the U.S. Treasury and Mortgage Bond markets.

Market reaction to the Fed’s press release has been muted. 

With no new stimulus and no new “tools” to spur the economy unveiled, Wall Street is business as usual.  Mortgage rates are unchanged post-FOMC today.

The FOMC’s next scheduled meeting is August 11-12, 2009.

Want To Know Why Mortgage Rates Are Up Over 1.125 Percent In 10 Days?

Posted June 9th, 2009 permalink

 

 

Non-Farm Payroll Report June 2009Since Memorial Day, conforming mortgage rates have jumped by more than 1.125 percent, adding thousands of dollars to the annual cost of homeownership.

To the casual observer, the moves may seem random.  There’s a reason this is happening, however. 

It starts with inflation.

As an economic force, inflation erodes the value of the U.S. Dollar.  Left unchecked, it drives up the Cost of Living as each dollar “buys less” at the supermarket, gas station, or anywhere else.

But with respect to mortgage rates, inflation’s impact is more immediate.  Because inflation devalues the dollar over the long-term, it renders long-term mortgage bonds a less attractive investment for traders. 

If bond investors are repaid in U.S. Dollars, after all, it would make the investment worth less if the dollar is in an inflationary freefall. 

Therefore, in situations when inflation is likely to present, we find that traders often sell out of their mortgage bond positions which, in turn, drives down the bond prices.  Then, because bond yields move in the opposite direction of bond prices, rising rates are the inevitable result.

Lately, Wall Street is fearing inflation for a number of reasons:

  1. Job losses are slowing, adding to consumer spending expectations
  2. Gas prices have risen 41 days in a row
  3. The federal government is increasing the money supply

These 3 factors — plus a few others — are all coming to a head around the same time and traders are getting defensive with their portfolios.  As a result, they’re selling their mortgage bond positions and it’s driving mortgage rates higher.

Rates may continue to trek toward 7 percent through July and August, or they may retreat toward 5 percent.  We can’t know for sure.  What we can know, though, is that volatility in rates should continue until the economic picture gets more clear. That could be next week, or next year.

For now, be ready to lock at a moment’s notice.  Mortgage rates are changing quickly.

Mortgage Rates Tack On One-Half-Percent For The Second Time In A Week

Posted June 2nd, 2009 permalink

 

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey May 2009Mortgage rates soared again Monday, tacking on a half-percent in a day for the second time in under a week.

Each half-percent adds $62 to a $200,000 home loan’s monthly payment, or $744 per year.

For home buyers recently under contract, it’s a gut-wrenching time to be shopping for a home loan.  Morning mortgage rates have been typically gone by early-afternoon and — in some cases — lenders have changed rates five times in one-day span.

The reasons for surge in rates are varied, but each is related to the idea that the economic recession may be nearing its end.

Each of these points bodes well for the economy and pushes Wall Street investors towards more risky investments.  As a result, “safe” investments get sold — including mortgage-backed bonds, the basis for conforming mortgage rates.

For as long as the future of the economy remains in question, expect mortgage rates to remain volatile.  We won’t get half-point rate swings or five pricings in a day every day, but both are becoming more common.

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