More Americans are getting back to work.
The latest Non-Farm Payrolls survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that 117,000 net new jobs were created in July, thumping analyst estimates and surprising Wall Street investors.
In addition, May and June’s originally-reported figures were both revised higher:
The national Unemployment Rate slipped to 9.1 percent.
The jobs report’s strong readings would typically be a boon to stock market and a threat to mortgage rates. This is because more employed Americans means more disposable income spent on products and services; and more taxes paid to governments at the federal, state and local level.
This combination fuels consumer spending and supports new job growth, a self-reinforcing cycle that spurs economic growth and often to draw investors into equities.
This month, however, the market reaction has been decidedly different.
Since the Friday release of the July Non-Farm Payrolls report, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has lost close to 6 percent of its value. Furthermore, mortgage bonds — which typically sink on a strong jobs figure — have thrived.
High demand for mortgage-backed bonds have pushed mortgage rates below their all-time lows set last November; the biggest cause of which is Standard & Poor’s credit downgrade of U.S. government-issued debt.
Ironically, the credit rating downgrade sparked a surge of safe haven bidding that has been tremendous to rate shoppers and home buyers nationwide. Bond buyers are flocking to the U.S.
If you’ve been shopping for a mortgage, therefore, or recently bought a home, use this week’s action to your advantage. Call your lender and ask about rates. You may be surprised at what you find.
The United States is projected to reach its legal $14.294 trillion debt limit today. The limit was set by Congress February 12, 2010. The U.S. Treasury may not issue new debt beyond the debt ceiling.
Since April 2011, Congress has debated ways to remain below the nation’s $14.292 trillion borrowing limit. The debate commenced with the passage of the 2011 U.S. Federal Budget which featured a $1.645 trillion deficit.
This multi-trillion dollar deficit ensured that the debt ceiling would be touched at some point during the current fiscal year.
That date was May 16. It took an intervention from the Treasury Secretary to temporarily extend the limits; an “extraordinary measure” meant to keep the U.S. government from defaulting on its debt.
With additional room to borrow, then, the U.S. Treasury’s new debt ceiling date was moved to August 2. Congress has been debating the federal budget since mid-May with the dual-goal of (1) Remaining below the federal debt limit, and (2) Creating a budgetary surplus for the future.
An agreement is expected today.
For home buyers and rate shoppers , this is an important development. The debt ceiling agreement will influence mortgage markets and, as a result, require amendments to home affordability calculations. As mortgage rates change, your purchasing power does, too.
Unfortunately, we don’t know in which direction mortgage rates will go.
Since the prospect of a deal was first hinted Friday, mortgage rates have been improving. Conforming, 30-year fixed rates are down nearly 0.250 percent, lowering a $150,000 mortgage payment by $22 per month.
The final deal terms of a deal, however, could lead rates higher.
As always, the safest play is to lock your mortgage rate if you are comfortable with its proposed payment. Yes, mortgage rates may move lower in the future but, then again, maybe they’ll move higher.
First Heritage Mortgage, LLC
6550 Rock Spring Drive, Suite 260, Bethesda, Maryland 20817-1131
Direct: 240.223.1730 • Toll-free: 866.833.LOAN • Fax: 240.223.1703
